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London, Canada – Liberalists have just set out in Canada from one of the greatest turmoil in modern democratic history: the transition from an expected swab in December to victory on Monday evening. To understand the reason, you need to look at the signs on the sidewalk.
I do not mean people who announce Prime Minister Mark Carney, although there are many of them. Instead, I refer to those outside many companies, which contain long lists of Canadian products offered.
The signs are part of the boycott of the American -based American goods, a movement launched in a direct response to the proposed definitions of President Donald Trump and annexation threats. A recent survey found this 61 percent of Canadians Currently intersection of American goods.
Trump has created the greatest increase in America’s national hostility in the history of Canada as an independent country. The liberal party, which was carrying the party, was the best position to fight Trump, only installed it to victory.
Politically, this is the huge goal of Trump. Carney competitor, conservative leader Pierre Boulevri, is one of the popular right-wing people who attacked the media and embraced conspiracy theories-mainly near Maga as much as you can get it in the prevailing Canadian policy.
If Trump never uttered the phrase “State 51”, he would get a friend in Ottawa. Instead, he has Carney – a The critic for a long time From global economic domination in America from He was carried on the idea “The old relationship that we had with the United States … has ended.”
Trump, in short, not only caused himself – but for the United States. By giving a critical ally to no avail, it harms the basic architecture of American hegemony. The United States does not specify the conditions of global politics alone; It has created a system of global rule that depends critically depends on the enthusiastic support of Democratic allies. If politicians in those allied countries in the elections win by a promise to the explosion of the United States, the foundations of this system began to bust.
“In the past, the popularity of the American president, or its absence, has been to what extent will countries go to help the United States – so the United States will not get much help in the near future,” says Steve Sadan, a professor of international relations at the University of Carlton at Ottawa. “How long is this not clear, but this deepens Bush in 2003 or Trump 1.0.”
How Trump changed the course of Canadian history
The liberal party in Canada was in power for 10 years. This is longer than a party that usually carries power in Canada (or any other democratic country, for this issue); Voters usually feel frustrated by the inevitable shortcomings of a government government before that and are looking for change. For years, this frustration was governed by the liberals: their main rival, the Conservative Party, was Forward in polls since 2022. Recently, in late January, the conservative was the right way for more than double Liberal share in popular vote.
Over just three months, the Liberals, led by Carney, moved from more than 20 points to (to this writing) from two points. Whether that is translated into an explicit majority of seats in Parliament, the liberals may need a third -party support to rule – but there is no doubt that they will form the next Canada government.
Partially, this is the result of the decision of the liberals to change horses. Justin Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, resigned as a liberal leader in December with a toxic approval classification (although the Prime Minister remained until March). The party needed a person like Carney, a central banker who is not a member of Parliament, to wash the Crete.
However, this was not alone enough on its own to change the polls: the liberals continued to survey of the bad for about a month after Trudeau’s announcement. It took an additional thing for the liberals to ignore last night.
This is something, of course, Donald Trump – specifically talking about making Canada “State 51”.
Trump’s first Battle in this field, Prime Minister “Rudo Rudo” described in December BBC mentioned It is “a slight blow to his Canadian counterpart.” But then Trump kept it after his inauguration on January 20.
More than that, escalating: imposing a heavy tariff on Canadian -made goods that represent the declared logical basis (Fintanel imports are not presentIt does not make sense. In February, Trudeau announced that Trump was sincerely Trying to seize CanadaBy March, opinion polls showed this Most of the Canadians agreed.
This has proven very catastrophic for conservatives.
Their candidate, Pierre Pollyfer, It represents from the right side of the partyHis base is the type of ideological wallet that may already be positive Trump’s feelings. In fact, the style of Poilievre in a number of aspects is similar to that it gives his opponents humiliating titles, warning against “esteemed mob”, warns of the plot of the World Economic Forum against Canada, and proud of his pride “by bringing him to the beautiful home tax.” Idon Musk supported In January.
The Poilievere campaign does not seem to understand the Trump problem – its adoption.Canada first”As a campaign note in February, for example. Cori Tennik, one of the leading strategy in the party, Poilievere is publicly accused And his team is to commit “misconduct in the campaign at the highest level.”
On the contrary, Carney is generally seen as doing a decent work that has been dealing with America’s problem since he took office in March. His background in international financing – He led the Bank of England during the exit of Britain from the European Union – reassures many Canadians as a stable hand in Al -Harith during the trade war. A survey in mid -April founded this The Canadians in Carney trust Poilievere Through the numbers margins on major issues such as “management during difficult economic times” and “standing in front of President Trump”.
David Godwin, a liberal organizer for a long time, decided to run for parliament this year for the first time-on a trip in the London region, which was kept by conservatives over the past twenty years (“horseback” is the Canadian term for the electoral zone). He told me that the Canadians felt uniquely terrified by Trump and repelled it by a conservative party similar to the Republican Party, giving the liberals an opportunity even in long regions like it.
“Because of Donald Trump, [the election] He told me: “The Canadians really mobilized to participate,” We have not faced any threat like this in my life. “
At the time of publication, Godwin fell more than 10 points – a significant improvement in the last liberal running in its riding. Although it may not win, the national results have proven his correct basic vision. The liberals won by benefiting from it.
You will not like the American allies when they get angry
During the campaign, Carney talked about harsh about the future of the relationship between the United States and Canada-and promised something very similar to the dismantling of Canada from the network of military and economic relations that it has with the states.
Experts told me, it is possible that it is a little lavage. the The Canadian army suffers from a lack of fundingThus it depends on the United States to obtain assistance in dealing with threats such as Chinese Rosso adventure in the Arctic. As far as Canada is permissible European or Asian markets, it is so It is impossible to trade efficiently or profitable Through the ocean, it is as it is on immediate ground borders.
However, there are many possibilities between fully decoding and no meaningful harm to the American -Canadian relationship. Certainly, we are somewhere in this range; The question is how it looks.
“Carne is a little exaggeration, simply because they are elections and this is his case,” says Adam Harsis, a professor at the Western University studying Canadian and foreign policy. “But this does not mean that it is In full Exaggeration in this.
There are a number of ways that Canada begins to move away from the United States in practical terms, ranging from INKING New trade agreements with the European Union To increase its defensive spending. But there is a deeper and more worried dynamic work here.
The United States does not condemn its global domination of its US military and economic power alone. Instead, it built a global political bloc – and most importantly, the rich and powerful democracies in Western Europe and East Asia – which depend on all kinds of geopolitical tasks. All types of systems range from NATO Alliance to Place the dollar as a global backup currencyPartially or totally depends on the belief of these countries that the United States is a great reliable partner who deserves their implicit confidence.
This confidence works deeply, and in this way I survived the major crises in the past. The George W. Bush administration was angry with Canada, France and Germany for refusing to join the American invasion of Iraq, but the main relationship between nations remained strong.
But by threatening the Canadian economy, and even its sovereignty, the Trump administration has crossed a line. Canada no longer assumes that Washington has a basic level of respect for Ottawa. It is not even possible to rely on America as a friend in the short term. Worse, they do not know when it will end: even if you have set aside to break up Trump from a third illegal state, there is a real opportunity because the next Republican (for example, JD Vance) will deal with Canada in the same way.
The threat to America here is not only that the Carney government does something painful in the short term, such as anti -picnics. His election on an anti -America platform is a sign that Canada like It has lost a state of confidence in the US -led global system. If this is true, his leaders become more open to long-term changes to the world order-such as getting away from the dollar as a backup currency-which he may have never thought about.
In this, Canada is not alone. The upcoming Australian elections had a significantly similar arc. The current party, the left -wing work, was losing to the right -wing national coalition for most of the elections. they I started to return in late MarchBut only open and consistent progress after the Tahrir Day tariffs in Trump. Australian analysts Liberal ascending to a violent reaction against Trump Politicians look at similarity in style.
Trump’s aggressive economic policy is not, as he claimed, which makes America great or respected again. Instead, it has an opposite effect: the allies have long been converting into places where the campaign against the American leadership is a profitable strategy.
“Trump risks the basic infrastructure of the American (and political) economic impact,” says Dan Nixon, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University.
So, if we are already witnessing the beginning of the end of the American-led global system, it is possible that history books will be recorded on April 28, 2025, as a prominent history-where even the nearest ally in America began towards the geopolitical exits.